Análise de cenários do agronegócio brasileiro frente à China, aos EUA e à UE, utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

This study aims to analyze trade opportunities by simulating a possible trade integration between Brazil and China, US and the EU. The goal is to identify the sectors most benefited by the eventual agreement, classified according to their degree of technological intensity, with emphasis on Brazilian agribusiness. We classified products by level of technological intensity according to the criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We used the computable general equilibrium model and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, version 9, to simulate the impacts on international trade and the welfare effects of a possible trade integration of Brazil with selected partners. Finally, the results show that welfare gains for Brazil, in all agreements, are mainly related to the better allocation of its productive resources, which would concentrate in the primary sectors, and of low technological intensity, which would add the agribusiness.