Modeling climate-smart forest management and wood use for climate mitigation potential in Maryland and Pennsylvania

State and local governments are increasingly interested in understanding
the role forests and harvested wood products play in regional carbon sinks
and storage, their potential contributions to state-level greenhouse gas
(GHG) reductions, and the interactions between GHG reduction goals and
potential economic opportunities. We used empirically driven process-based
forest carbon dynamics and harvested wood product models in a
systems-based approach to project the carbon impacts of various forest
management and wood utilization activities in Maryland and Pennsylvania
from 2007–2100. To quantify state-wide forest carbon dynamics, we
integrated forest inventory data, harvest and management activity data,
and remotely-sensed metrics of landuse change and natural forest
disturbances within a participatory modeling approach. We accounted for
net GHG emissions across (1) forest ecosystems (2) harvested wood
products, (3) substitution benefits from wood product utilization, and (4)
leakage associated with reduced instate harvesting activities. Based on
state agency partner input, a total of 15 management scenarios were
modeled for Maryland and 13 for Pennsylvania, along with two climate
change scenarios and two bioenergy scenarios for each state. Our findings
show that both strategic forest management and wood utilization can
provide substantial climate mitigation potential relative to
business-as-usual practices, increasing the forest C sink by 29% in
Maryland and 38% in Pennsylvania by 2030 without disrupting timber
supplies. Key climate-smart forest management activities include
maintaining and increasing forest extent, fostering forest resiliency and
natural regeneration, encouraging sustainable harvest practices, balancing
timber supply and wood utilization with tree growth, and preparing for
future climate impacts. This study adds to a growing body of work that
quantifies the relationships between forest growth, forest disturbance,
and harvested wood products.