Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly

1. Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins.
2. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future.
3. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring data set including the majority of all habitat patches at the species’ northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonisation-extinction dynamics.
4. The fluc...