NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Wiles et al. 2009 Lake Erie 265 Year Lake Level Reconstruction

A dendroclimatic reconstruction based on tree ring chronologies from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) explains 50% of the variance in annual Lake Erie levels. Temperature-sensitive ring-width series from the GOA are strongly and negatively correlated with annual lake levels, reflecting the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. Phases of the PNA are linked to variable circulation patterns that provide moisture to the Lake Erie basin, determining lake levels. The reconstruction extends back 265 years and shows that annual lake levels were high during the mid 1700s, the mid to late 1800s and the late 1900s. Relative low stands occurred during the late 1700s and early 1900s. The highest lake levels in the reconstruction are found over the past few decades, as seen in the observed record. Multidecadal-scale fluctuations in the Lake Erie reconstruction underscore the importance of Pacific Decadal Variability in determining levels in the Great Lakes.