Registered predictions for the Sunnybrook active-surveillance cohort — counterfactual engine, prostate (engine 427df97, script 8fd9629)

Pre-registered predictions of metastasis in men entering active surveillance, for comparison with the Sunnybrook (Toronto) cohort before any unpublished Sunnybrook figure is seen. Fourteen strata by Grade Group (1 vs 2+), age band, PSA density and PSA; horizons 10 and 15 years; two conventions (net risk, Kaplan–Meier-comparable; crude cumulative incidence with death competing). Point = central s_high; interval = admissible s_high range; n = simulated men. Fidelity level 2, 8 replicates, seed 3, seeding-to-detection lag 5 years (unsourced, registered as such). Engine commit 427df97; prediction script commit 8fd9629. The published Sunnybrook rates (Musunuru et al., J Urol 2016;196:1651) are a calibration input and are not tested. Files are embargoed and will be released with the test report.