Functional divergence from ecological baselines on Caribbean coral reefs

Understanding how emergent ecological assemblages have diverged from natural states is fundamental in predicting future functioning and services of ecosystems. Coral reefs are of particular concern due to their high susceptibility to anthropogenic stressors. Yet, little is known about their pre-disturbance ranges of natural states, and most reports of decline are based on a limited number of sites and high levels of uncertainty. Here, we used a novel approach to estimate the physical functionality of reefs across marine ecoregions based on habitat suitability and morpho-functional traits for coral species. We calibrated ecological niche models for 49 reef-building corals of the Greater Caribbean based on occurrence records and environmental predictors, which we combined with species-specific functional coefficients derived from morpho-functional traits reflecting their contribution to the reef three-dimensional structure to estimate the reef functional potential (RFP). We then assessed ...