Naturalized distributions show that climatic disequilibrium is structured by niche size in pines (Pinus L.)

Aim: The assumption that species’ native distributions are in equilibrium with climate has been shown to be frequently violated, despite its centrality to many niche model applications. We currently lack a framework that predicts these violations. Here we examine whether variation in climatic disequilibrium is structured by properties of species’ native distributions and climatic niches. Location: Global Methods: We built climatic niche models for 106 pine (Pinus L.) species, including 25 that have naturalized outside their native range. We measured the extent of climate space occupied exclusively by naturalized populations and considered what fraction of this space was available within the native continent and near the native range. We examined the consequences of disequilibrium for estimates of potential range filling and sister-species niche conservatism. Results: Most species (23 of 25) have naturalized in climate conditions outside of the native niche, leading to increases in the ...