Dataset for Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection

This dataset contains the input data for the panel regression and SEIR analyses for the paper "Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection", as well as the results of the SEIR calibrations. Under the `inputs` directory, the `panel_all.csv` data provides the compiled data for the core analyses. For information on COVID cases, we use daily reports from the John Hopkins University's COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) (Dong et al. 2020). We complement these data with a variety of online sources on confirmed cases at the subnational level. For information on weather, we use ERA 5 reanalysis (Hersbach et al. 2018). The data were downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store in January 2021. The governance data (in `inputs/governance`) is drawn from https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ for the year 2019. The mapping is done using GADM 3.6, simplified to reduce its size, and stored in `inputs/gadm36_levels_simple`. The result data in the `results` directory represents calibrations of the Bayesian SEIR model: - Files of the form `epimodel-meta-0314...-nodel.csv` include parameter estimates both as initially calibrated (group = "Raw") and after the meta-analysis (group = "Combined"). Paramater estimates are represented by their mean, standard deviation, and five quantiles. Different files of this form reflect different assumptions: (1) `-noweather` exclude weather effects; `-noprior` exclude panel regression priors, and `-full3` include weather and priors; (2) `-all` were estimated using all observations; `-mobile` were estimated using only region/observations with mobility data; (3) `-nobs` include meta-analyzed data weighted by the number of observations; `-pop` are weighted by population; and `-region` are weighted by region. - The `global-0314.RData` file contains calibrations treating the whole world as one region. - The `pairwise.csv` and `pairwise-all.csv` compare data from regions that have valid no-prior (suffix 1) and no-weather (suffix 2) projections. `pairwise.csv` has summary statistics while `pairwise-all.csv` includes every region. Acknowledgements:<br> <br> The results contain modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2020. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains.<br> <br> Bibliography:<br> <br> Dong E, Du H, Gardner L (2020): An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Inf Dis. 20(5):533-534. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1<br> <br> Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., Thépaut, J-N. (2018): ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). (Accessed in January 2021), 10.24381/cds.adbb2d47