figure and table

Coal mining activities in semi-arid regions can significantly disrupt groundwater systems, leading to a range of ecological and environmental issues, including water quality degradation, soil contamination, and vegetation loss. However, current studies on the evolution of groundwater–soil–vegetation ecosystems in mining areas often overlook or overly simplify the complex nonlinear interactions among these components. This study uses the Bojianghaizi Basin in China as a case study, applying remote sensing inversion, hydrogeological surveys, and soil habitat quality assessments, alongside the PCA-APCS-MLR, EWM, and OLS models, as well as hydrogeochemical methods, to conduct a comparative analysis of groundwater-soil-vegetation system evolution under the influence of coal mining activities and natural conditions. The results show that groundwater chemical types in areas affected by coal mining are primarily Cl·SO4-Na, whereas those under natural conditions are predominantly HCO3-Ca. Groundwater in the study area is influenced by the dissolution of carbonate and sulfate rocks and cation exchange adsorption. However, compared to natural conditions, groundwater in mining areas is more strongly impacted by the dissolution of calcium-magnesium-bearing minerals, such as feldspar and pyroxene. Analysis using the PCA-APCS-MLR model attributes the factors influencing groundwater chemical characteristics in the study area to four main sources: evaporation concentration, water-rock interactions and ion exchange, agricultural pollution, acid production from the oxidation of sulfur-bearing ores, and other sources. Significant spatial differences exist in the coupling relationships between groundwater chemical characteristics (x1), soil characteristics (x2), and fraction vegetation coverage (FVC, y) on the north and south sides of the study area's lakes. The multiple regression models for the three variables in the mining-disturbed and naturally regulated areas, constructed using the EWM and OLS methods, are: yNorth=−210.246x1−37.228x2+124.727 (R2=0.607), ySouth=−142.642x1−60.186x2+105.574 (R2=0.784). The model results indicate that changes in groundwater chemical characteristics are the primary factors affecting FVC. Compared to the mining-disturbed area, changes in soil characteristics have a more significant impact on FVC in the naturally regulated area. This study can not only provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of similar mining areas globally but also provide guidance for ecological management and the rational utilization of water and soil resources in semi-arid coal mining areas.