1Proportion of cases for which each of the three arbitrarily fixed parameter values were inside the 95% credible interval of the posterior distributions (100 repetitions).2For herds submitted to a tot
The parameters are chosen to give similar contagion dynamics to both the wild-type and Alpha variants of COVID-19 in populations of the same magnitude as the three LTLAs considered in the UKHSA report
*A 40% vaccination rate was assumed for results presented in main text. The distribution per month indicates what portion of the 40% were vaccinated each month. So, in vaccination profile D, in Septem
