How CO2 emissions and material flows vary with economic recession: implications for mitigation pathways

Achieving the targets of Paris Climate Agreement require a sustainable deepening of the decarbonization and dematerialization processes. Using a global sample of 154 countries during the 1960−2020 period, this study reveals that mitigations in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and materials consumption are more likely to be realized in recessions but that this effect is not persistent and a rebound typically occurs in the following year as the economy recovers; only long-term system-wide green stimulus packages in low-growth conditions in advanced countries can realize decarbonization and dematerialization in absolute terms. Therefore, the findings challenge the degrowth proposal in eliminating climate threats and highlight potential mitigation pathways in advanced countries, such as an expansion of renewable shares, a strictly implementation of climate policies and a massive shift of consumers’ behavior. This calls for an extensive international network—the North-South and Triangular Cooperation, in particular—to reach the established global warming targets.