Data from: Predicting range shifts of pikas (Mammalia, Ochotonidae) in China under scenarios incorporating land-use change, climate change, and dispersal limitations

Two of the most important forces affecting biodiversity are land-use
change (LUC) and global climate change (GCC). Previous studies have
modeled their impacts on species separately and together, but few have
done so for multiple species with dispersal limitations incorporated into
the models. We integrate species distribution models plus a dispersal
model to predict LUC and GCC impacts on the ranges of five species of
pikas in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region of China. Pikas are sensitive to
land-use and climate change, and have limited dispersal abilities. The
predicted impacts of LUC and GCC on pikas vary between species as well as
between LUC and GCC projections. Incorporation of dispersal limitations
appreciably restricts the amount of colonized habitat. For all five
species, the amount of habitat abandoned or colonized when LUC and GCC are
modeled together is less than the sum of LUC and GCC modeled separately.
Three of the five species experience a net increase in occupied habitat by
2080 relative to their current ranges under all modeled projections.
However, relative to a “Dispersal Only” baseline scenario that assumes no
environmental change but continued range expansion into suitable,
unoccupied habitat, all five species suffer a net loss of occupied habitat
by 2080 under some or all projections. Predictions of future distributions
of species based solely on LUC or GCC, as well as predictions assuming
additive impacts, can be misleading. Inclusion of dispersal limitations in
models markedly alters predicted future distributions of species. The use
of a “Dispersal Only” scenario provides a different and perhaps more
accurate way to gauge net impacts to species. Future work should consider
incorporating all these parameters to better predict the impacts of LUC
and GCC on biodiversity.