Italian Pension System - Demography, Labor Market, and Macroeconomic Data

This dataset provides a comprehensive collection of macroeconomic, demographic, and labor market indicators designed to analyze the financial sustainability of the Italian Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) public pension system. The data covers the period from 1995 to 2023 and was constructed to empirically test the Aaron-Samuelson conditions, the impact of demographic aging (longevity risk), and the efficacy of legislative pension reforms (e.g., the 2011 Monti-Fornero reform). The dataset includes both raw data extracted from official institutional databases and custom-calculated structural ratios (such as the System Dependency Ratio and Real Productivity). 2. Data Sources The variables in this dataset were aggregated from a comprehensive selection of national and international institutional databases to ensure macroeconomic consistency and high data quality: ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica): Utilized for baseline demographic data specific to Italy (population brackets, life expectancy, net migration) and core domestic macroeconomic indicators (GDP, deflators). Eurostat: Utilized for harmonized European labor market statistics (employment and unemployment rates across specific age brackets) and comparative demographic metrics. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development): Sourced for structural labor market indicators, comparative macroeconomic data, and international pension metrics (such as replacement ratios and productivity). AMECO (Annual Macro-Economic Database of the European Commission): Sourced for harmonized macroeconomic indicators, GDP components, and real productivity measures across EU member states. World Bank: Utilized for long-term demographic trends, global macroeconomic indicators, and cross-verification of population dynamics. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data): Utilized to extract and cross-verify broad macroeconomic time-series data and global economic indicators. INPS (Istituto Nazionale della Previdenza Sociale) / MEF (Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze): Utilized for aggregate public finance data regarding total non-means-tested pension expenditure, total pension beneficiaries, and total payroll contributions for the Italian system. 3. Codebook / Variable Definitions A. Demographic Indicators Pop_15_64: Working-Age Population. The absolute number of individuals aged 15 to 64. Represents the theoretical labor pool available to finance the PAYG system. Pop_65plus: Elderly Population. The absolute number of individuals aged 65 and older. Life_Exp_0: Life Expectancy at Birth. Life_Exp_65: Life Expectancy at Age 65. A critical proxy for measuring "longevity risk" and the duration of pension disbursement. Net_Migr: Net Migration. The difference between immigration and emigration flows. B. Labor Market Indicators Emp_Rate: Total Employment Rate (Age range 15–64). Unemp_Rate: Total Unemployment Rate (Age range 15–74). Fem_Emp: Female Employment Rate (Age range 15–64). Youth_Unemp: Youth Unemployment Rate (Age range 15–24). Tot_Workers: Total Active Workers. The absolute number of employed individuals contributing to the system. C. Macroeconomic Indicators GDP_Nom_Mil: Nominal Gross Domestic Product (in current millions of Euros). GDP_Real_Mil: Real Gross Domestic Product (in millions of Euros). GDP_Deflator: GDP Price Deflator. Used to adjust nominal values for inflation. Prod_Emp_Nom: Nominal Productivity. GDP per person employed at current prices. Real_Prod: Real Productivity. The real economic output generated by each active worker. Calculation: [Prod_Emp_Nom / GDP_Deflator] * 100 D. Pension System & Fiscal Indicators Pens_Exp_Mil: Total Pension Expenditure. Total expenditure on non-means-tested pensions (in current millions of Euros). Pens_Exp_Cap: Per Capita Pension Expenditure. Total expenditure on non-means-tested pensions per inhabitant (at constant 2015 prices). Total_Contrib_Mil: Total Pension Contributions. Total payroll contributions collected specifically for pensions (in millions of Euros). Tot_Retirees: Total Pension Beneficiaries. The absolute number of individuals receiving pension benefits. Exp_GDP_Ratio: Pension Expenditure-to-GDP Ratio. The core macroeconomic burden of the pension system. Calculation: [Pens_Exp_Mil / GDP_Nom_Mil] Dep_Ratio: System Dependency Ratio. The ratio of actual retirees to actual active workers. A precise measure of the structural aging burden. Calculation: [Tot_Retirees / Tot_Workers] Rep_Ratio: Aggregate Replacement Ratio. A measure of pension adequacy. Calculation: [Exp_GDP_Ratio / Dep_Ratio]