Scenario analysis in the BNDES experience: integrating operational risk management with the measurement of capital

ABSTRACT Internal operational risk models have not yet been established as a methodology for calculating regulatory capital. These models, which must be integrated with operational risk management, have been criticized for the subjectivity of some of their fundamental elements. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the "scenario analysis" element in the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) methodology for calculating regulatory capital relative to operational risk, based on the experience of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) in integrating operational risk management with the measurement of capital. The proposed methodology, which applied the Delphi technique through questionnaires, enabled: (i) the measurement of regulatory capital considering feasible scenarios; (ii) the identification of tail and body scenarios for the aggregate distribution of losses, which are not reflected in the internal loss database; (iii) the identification and comprehensive measurement of BNDES’s operational risks; (iv) the obtainment of information that can guide risk management with regard to identifying risks that must be given prioritized treatment; (v) the development of a risk culture, with a view to involving specialists from different units; (vi) the use of a methodology that can be understood by all business experts, who are the ones that are aware of the risks of their activities.