Iowa Leading Indicators Index and Iowa Non-Farm Employment Coincident Index

This timeline chart displays the direction of both the Iowa Leading Indicators Index and Iowa Non-Farm Employment Coincident Index since January 1999. A movement in the Iowa Leading Indicator Index for only one month does not produce a clear signal, rather it is necessary to consider the direction of the index over several consecutive months. A contraction signal in the ILII is considered reliable when two conditions are met: 1. The index declines by at least two percent over a six-month period (using an annualized rate); and, 2. A majority of the individual components decline over those six months (the six-month diffusion index less than 50.0).