Uncertainty through the Production Network: Sectoral Origins and Macroeconomic Implications

We study how uncertainty propagates through production networks. First, we construct a highly disaggregated, forward-looking measure of industry-level uncertainty using option-implied volatility data for U.S. firms. Second, we identify the effects of higher uncertainty within industries, across the

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集是一项关于不确定性通过生产网络传播的研究，聚焦于行业层面不确定性的度量和影响。研究发现，上游行业不确定性增加类似负向供给冲击，推高价格并减少就业；下游行业不确定性增加则类似负向需求冲击，降低价格和就业。研究通过多部门模型强调生产联系在解释宏观经济效应中的关键角色。