Speculative Transactions in the 1926 May Wheat Future

Excerpts: During the early months of 1925 the unusual and erratic fluctuations in wheat futures prices so paralyzed the grain trade generally that a Federal investigation was made by the Grain Futures Administration. The results of that investigation were published as Senate Document No. 135, entitled ‘‘Fluctuations in Wheat Futures.” That report covered the period from January 2 to April 18, 1925, and related to the trading operations and price changes in the 1925 May wheat future on the Chicago Board of Trade. The bulletin here presented is in substance a carrying forward of this earlier investigation to include the transactions in the 1926 May wheat future. The daily reports regularly received by the Grain Futures Administration from all classes of ‘‘traders’’ show that large-scale speculative operations carried on during the first four months of 1925 continued during the summer and fall and the following winter. Having already found from the earlier study that the trading of hedgers, scalpers, and spreaders does not directly relate to large price movements, the present study has been limited to purely speculative trading and principally to the operations of the eight individuals whose market positions exceeded 2,000,000 bushels. The present investigation covers only wheat futures as did the previous one and emphasizes in particular the trading and price movements in the 1926 May future.