Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978-1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994-2003; (iv) bias correction of Regional Climate Model (v) utilization of bias corrected RCM for future assessment under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041-2070) and late century (2071-2100). The result...