Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States

Retirement Notice: This item is in mature support as of February 2026 and will be retired in December 2026. A replacement item has not been identified at this time. Esri recommends updating your maps and apps to phase out use of this item. This layer maps economic damage due to climate change by county level across the United States. Projections for three time periods and two emissions scenarios are included for agricultural production, human mortality, and energy expenditures. The default symbology and pop-up display change in energy expenditures for an intermediate emission scenario (RCP 4.5) for the period 2040-2059 relative to 2012. Attributes Energy - Percent change in residential and commercial sector energy expenditure relative to 2012. Estimates are based on modeling from Rhodium Group’s version of the National Energy Modeling System RHG-NEMS. Mortality - Net change in deaths per 100,000 population due to heat and cold. Changes are reported relative to 2012 statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Agriculture - Percent change in total agricultural yields, area-weighted average, for maize, wheat, soybeans, and cotton due to climate change including effects of CO2 fertilization. Changes are reported relative to statistics from the US Department of Agriculture in the year 2012. Counties with null values did not have production of these crops in 2012. High Risk Labor - Percent change in labor productivity in high risk sectors. High risk sectors consist of agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, mining quarrying, oil extraction, gas extraction, utilities, construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. Total Labor - Percent change in labor supply of full-time-equivalent workers for all jobs. Values are based on total productivity losses assuming there is no growth in the labor force and account for changes in labor supply. Changes are reported relative to statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the year 2012. Emissions Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) Time Periods Two-Decade periods 2020-2039 2040-2059 2080-2099 For more information about how the data used in this layer were created see: Climate Impact Lab Hsiang, S., Kopp, R.E., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D.J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., and Houser, T. (2017). Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369停用通知：本数据集自2026年2月起进入成熟支持阶段，并将于2026年12月正式停用。目前尚未确定替代数据集。Esri建议您更新现有地图与应用程序，逐步停止使用本数据集。 本图层用于绘制全美各县因气候变化导致的经济损失情况。数据集涵盖农业生产、人类健康死亡率及能源支出三个维度，包含三个时段与两种排放情景下的相关预测结果。 相较于2012年基准，中等排放情景（RCP 4.5）下2040-2059时段的能源支出相关默认符号体系与弹窗显示内容将发生变化。 属性说明： 1. 能源（Energy）：住宅与商业部门能源支出相对2012年的变化百分比。估算基于罗德姆集团（Rhodium Group）开发的国家能源建模系统（National Energy Modeling System, RHG-NEMS）的建模结果。 2. 死亡率（Mortality）：每10万人口中因高温与低温导致的死亡人数净变化量。该变化以美国疾病控制与预防中心（Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC）2012年统计数据为基准。 3. 农业（Agriculture）：玉米、小麦、大豆及棉花的面积加权平均总农业单产相对2012年的变化百分比，其中纳入了CO₂施肥效应的气候变化影响。2012年无上述作物种植的县将为空值。 4. 高风险劳动力（High Risk Labor）：高风险行业的劳动生产率变化百分比。高风险行业涵盖农业、林业、渔业、狩猎业、采矿与采石业、石油开采、天然气开采、公用事业、建筑业、制造业、交通运输与仓储业。 5. 总劳动力（Total Labor）：所有岗位的全职当量劳动力供给变化百分比。该数值基于劳动力无增长前提下的总生产率损失，同时纳入劳动力供给变化的影响，以美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS）2012年统计数据为基准。 排放情景：采用典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP），包含中等排放情景（RCP 4.5）与高排放情景（RCP 8.5） 时段：以20年为周期的三个时段，分别为2020-2039、2040-2059、2080-2099 如需了解本图层所用数据的制作详情，请参阅：气候影响实验室（Climate Impact Lab）及相关论文： Hsiang, S., Kopp, R.E., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen D.J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., and Houser, T. (2017). 《美国气候变化经济损失估算》. Science. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369