SCENARIO-BASED SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-STOREY BUILDINGS USING NUMERICAL MODELING

This study presents a scenario-based assessment of the seismic vulnerability of multi-storey reinforced concrete buildings using numerical modeling and dynamic analysis. The investigated structure is a ten-storey reinforced concrete frame building modeled in the LIRA-SAPR software environment based on the finite element method (FEM). A modal analysis was performed to determine the natural vibration modes and periods of the structure, yielding a fundamental period of T₁ = 1.397 s. Seismic loads were calculated in accordance with the national standard KMK 2.01.03-19 using the response spectrum method. In addition to conventional deterministic analysis, the study incorporates a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework and develops fragility curves to evaluate the probability of exceeding different damage states. The maximum horizontal displacement at the roof level was found to be 33 mm. The results demonstrate that, although displacement-based criteria indicate acceptable structural performance, probabilistic analysis reveals a non-negligible probability of moderate and severe damage under increased seismic intensity levels. The proposed approach provides a comprehensive tool for seismic risk assessment and supports improved decision-making in seismic design and urban resilience planning.