Portal Rodent Trapping Forecasts on 5 August, 2016

This is the second forecast made for the rodent trapping at the long-term Portal research site in southern Arizona. Three models were used to achieve forecasts with 90% prediction intervals. Forecasts are for the site as a whole (total means across all plots, all treatment types).<br>Two naive models using the defaults in the forecast package in R were used to create forecasts for the total granivore captures (species="Total") over the next 12 trapping periods, the first being tomorrow.<br>The "Forecast" modelforecast(abundances$total,h=12,level=0.95,BoxCox.lambda(0),allow.multiplicative.trend=T)<br>The "AutoArima" modelforecast(auto.arima(abundances$total,lambda = 0),h=12,level=0.95,fan=T)<br>Species-level predictions, as well as another total captures prediction, were made using the tscount package in R.<br>The "NegBinom Time Series" model, by species (species codes are the first letter of the genus and species)<br>model=tsglm(abundances[[s]],model=list(past_obs=1,past_mean=11),distr="nbinom")<br>predict(model,12,level=0.9) <br>There are also total captures predictions created from the individual species predictions and their prediction intervals (model="NegBinom Time Series", species="SpeciesSums").<br>