Inflation-output trade-offs and the implications for monetary policy 1993-1997

<p>P1380A: Quarterly time-series data (1970:1 - 1992:2 / 92 points of measurement) containing for West Germany and the United States: money-stock (source: OECD), nominal gross national product (source: OECD, IMF), world trade volume in 1985 prices (source: DATASTREAM, IMF), price index of gross national product - 1985=100 (source: OECD, IMF), foreign price index - 1985=100 (source: DATASTREAM, IMF), oil-price index in US dollars - 1985=100 (source: HWWA) and derived constructs. Analysis aimed at testing: 1. symmetry hypothesis (= positive and negative shocks have equal effect on real income), 2. structural neutrality hypothesis (= expected changes in aggregate demand do not influence real output) and 3. non persistence hypothesis (= shocks only influence real output at time they occur). The price-misperception models and the price-stickiness models lead to opposing predictions regarding these hypotheses. ( natural rate hypothesis, Phillips curve P1380B: Cross-sectional meta-analysis of 143 developed and developing countries, based on material from 10 studies previously published. Variables: supply response to changes in the expected real price level in each individual market, price variance, trade-off effects of an unexpected increase in nominal demand on cyclical output and variance of nominal demand growth. Analysis aimed at testing Lucas variability hypotheses. ( new-classical economics / Phillips-curve ) P1380C: Quarterly time-series data (1969:1 - 1995:2 / 106 points of measurement) containing for Spain and Italy: consumer price index - 1990=100 (for Germany also), European price index (constructed), import price index - 1990=100, exchange rate towards Deutschmark and real effective exchange rate index - 1972=100 (constructed) Source: International Financial Statistics/ constructed variables: various. Analysis aimed at testing increase of speed of inflation convergence of Spain and Italy when joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism ( ERM )of the European Monetary System ( EMS ) and when maintaining a hard peg to the Deutschmark in the 1975-1995 period. ( credibility hypothesis / monetary policy )</p>