EU climate futures: estimating harvested wood product carbon stocks under forest sector shared socioeconomic pathways in northern and alpine Europe

This study examines the carbon stocks dynamics of harvested wood products (HWPs) and their implications for European forest-based climate mitigation strategies, focusing on Northern and Alpine regions. The sawnwood market share in these regions has undergone structural changes in recent decades, which was overlooked by previous research on future trajectories of HWP carbon stocks. To address this gap, our study employs a method that effectively controls for such shifts and identifies key predictors influencing HWP carbon stock dynamics. Using a combination of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and panel model analysis with time-fixed effects, we consistently found GDP, timber output, and economic openness to exert significant positive impacts on the production of all HWP categories studied (sawnwood, wood-based panels, and paper and paperboard). In contrast to earlier findings, our projections suggest that, without additional policies, HWP carbon stocks are likely to shift from being carbon sinks to sources by 2050. We conclude that achieving substantial climate change mitigation through the forest-based sector demands policy interventions to foster new applications for assortments predominantly used in short-lived products (e.g., paper and paperboard), and measures to extend the average product half-life through reconfiguring the forest-based sector.