Estimating births using GP registration data

A technical note and subsequent Update on the use of General Practitioner (GP) registration data to estimate the number of live births occurring in London.

The technical note presents analysis into the relationships between GP registration and birth estimates data, which indicates that GP registrations can be used to predict birth estimates with a good level of accuracy at local auhtority level.

Using the approach outlined in the note, a strong indication of births can be obtained up to eleven months ahead of the release of official data. The note presents birth estimates for the year to mid-2015 based on analysis of GP registration data and explores the likely accuracy of such estimates.

Intelligence Unit Update 04-2016 compares the birth predictions made in the technical note with subsequently released official estimates. The accuracy of the results is compared with that obtained from standard projection methodologies employed by the GLA and ONS. 

The Update presents estimates of births for the year to mid-2016 based upon recent GP registration data obtained by the GLA.

\*\*Update February 2023\*\*

Estimates of recent births using an updated version of this approach are now available [here](https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/modelled-estimates-of-recent-births)

The code used to produce these estimates is available on [GitHub](https://github.com/Greater-London-Authority/nowcast-birth-estimates).

一项关于利用普通开业医生（GP）注册数据估算伦敦出生人数的技术简报及其随后的更新。该简报对开业医生注册与出生估计数据之间的关系进行了分析，指出开业医生注册数据可以用于在地方当局层面以较高的准确性预测出生估计数。采用简报中概述的方法，可以提前至官方数据发布前十一个月获得出生的强烈迹象。简报基于开业医生注册数据对截至2015年上半年的出生估计数进行了分析，并探讨了此类估计的可能准确性。《情报单位更新04-2016》将技术简报中提出的出生预测与随后发布的官方估计进行了比较，并将结果的准确性与其他由伦敦政府署（GLA）和英国国家统计局（ONS）采用的标准预测方法进行了对比。更新展示了基于GLA获取的近期开业医生注册数据，对截至2016年上半年的出生估计数。**2023年2月更新**使用此方法更新版本的出生估计数现在可通过[此处](https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/modelled-estimates-of-recent-births)获取。用于生成这些估计数的代码可在[GitHub](https://github.com/Greater-London-Authority/nowcast-birth-estimates)上找到。