Economic and Institutional Factors Influencing Bilateral Trade in Mining and Quarrying Between China and Africa: A Gravity Model Analysis

The mining and quarrying industry is vital to the global economy, providing essential raw materials for many sectors. China is a major importer of African minerals, deepening trade ties with Africa and shaping the economic and political landscape of the two regions. This study examines the economic and institutional factors that affect Africa-China mining and quarrying trade flows from 2010 to 2021, using a trade gravity model with methods such as Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), Random Effects, ET-Tobit, EK-Tobit, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood (MPML. The results showed that the quality of institutions, especially the level of corruption, played a key role, with high levels of corruption associated with a reduction of up to 34.5% in exports in Africa and 51% in imports in China. Key economic factors, including GDP, the net barter trade index and Chinese FDI, have a positive impact on Africa's export capacity, while population size and GDP per capita show mixed effects on trade dynamics. The present study provides actionable policy recommendations for improving governance in the mining sector, strengthening trade partnerships and promoting sustainable development.