Factors influencing eastern wild turkey population growth in northeastern South Dakota

Eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in northeastern South Dakota appeared to be expanding soon after reintroduction in the 1990s; however, recent hunter success trends suggest a population decline in this region. While the cause of the apparent decline was unclear, out of an abundance of caution, managers closed the fall either-sex hunting season throughout much of the region in 2014. An investigation into the factors driving population growth within this system is needed to determine the most effective management strategies for increasing abundance. We incorporated age-class-specific estimates of female survival and lower-level reproductive parameters into a female-only, 2-stage pre-breeding birth-pulse model to project the population growth rate. Additionally, we performed perturbation analyses and conducted a life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to assess the impact of each demographic parameter on population growth. The finite rate of change indicates this population was declining-to-stable (λ = 0.808; 95% CI = 0.602, 1.010), and population growth was most greatly affected by changes in female survival. Management activities should focus on improving female survival by reducing the top two sources of mortality within this system—mammalian predation and haying equipment. Improved availability of quality nesting habitats could reduce female risk of predation and result in fewer females nesting in alfalfa hayfields, where nest failure is certain, and females are at risk of mortality due to haying. Improving female survival in northeastern South Dakota should increase the abundance of wild turkeys and improve hunting opportunities in the region.