Individual-based eco-evolutionary models for understanding adaptation in changing seas

As climate change threatens species’ persistence, predicting the potential
for species to adapt to rapidly changing environments is imperative for
the development of effective conservation strategies. Eco-evolutionary
individual-based models (IBMs) can be useful tools for achieving this
objective. We performed a literature review to identify studies that apply
these tools in marine systems. Our survey suggested that this is an
emerging area of research fueled in part by developments in modeling
frameworks that allow simulation of increasingly complex ecological,
genetic, and demographic processes. The studies we identified illustrate
the promise of this approach and advance our understanding of the capacity
for adaptation to outpace climate change. These studies also identify
limitations of current models and opportunities for further
development. We discuss three main topics that emerged across
studies: 1) effects of genetic architecture and non-genetic responses on
adaptive potential; 2) capacity for gene flow to facilitate rapid
adaptation; and 3) impacts of multiple stressors on persistence. Finally,
we perform a set of simple simulations to demonstrate the approach and
provide a framework for users to explore eco-evolutionary IBMs as tools
for understanding adaptation in changing seas.