Borrowed Youth: Demographic Change and Multinational Location Advantage — Article and Replication Materials

This article develops a temporal account of demographic location advantage. It connects population renewal with multinational recruitment control and the operating life of committed capital. The formal results establish when competing multinationals choose different hosts, how recruitment shared across affiliates changes that choice, and how admission institutions affect the value of recruitment. Version 3.61.0 organises the article around the international-business contribution, Bayesian investment-panel evidence, the conditional Nitra–Puebla appraisal, and implications for location and global-staffing research. All underlying observations, estimates, priors, formal statements and eight figures are retained. Main tables have been reordered and the replication materials and appendix references updated. The Bayesian results distinguish a relative arrival response from the joint positive-pricing and duration restriction. The common-sample probabilities are 69% with machinery lives and 11% with accounting lives; the primary joint restriction has below 0.1% posterior probability under its specified approximate likelihood and prior. These results challenge the combined empirical mapping. JLR staffing probabilities are conditional scenarios: under the flat-margin specification the observed choice leaves recruitment-offer odds unchanged. Start with Main_Manuscript_ANONYMOUS.pdf, Online_Appendix_ANONYMOUS.pdf and README.txt. The source archive contains compilable LaTeX and figures. The verified current replication overlay and nine frozen base archives reconstruct the complete permitted replication. Public inputs, code, aggregate outputs and source-specific licences are included. Licensed WRDS microdata require subscriber access; queries and reconstruction instructions are supplied. Editor-only cover and title pages are excluded from this public reviewer-file deposit.