Alaska River Ice Phenology from Landsat and ERA5: Observations, Models, and Trends (1979-2024)

This dataset provides spatial and temporal information on the seasonal formation and loss of river ice cover (ice phenology) across Alaska from water years (WY) 1979 to 2023 at the river reach level, integrating remote sensing observations from the Landsat satellite archive with climate reanalysis data from ERA5. It includes both observed indicators derived directly from satellite imagery and modeled estimates of ice-cover status generated from logistic regression using air temperature metrics. The dataset characterizes freeze-up and break-up timing, duration of ice cover, and changes in river ice phenology. The primary purpose of this dataset is to support assessments of how river ice has responded to changing climate conditions over recent decades. These data are intended to inform decision-making related to transportation, access to resources, and climate adaptation—particularly for rural Alaskan communities, many of which depend on rivers as year-round transportation corridors and require stable ice cover for safe winter travel. The dataset is associated with a manuscript by Brown et al. (in prep). It is structured to support both exploratory visualization and reproducible analysis, with accompanying code for data processing, model fitting, and summarization of results. Key products include: - Observed surface water and inferred ice cover extent from Landsat for 30 rivers (WY 1982–2023); - Predicted annual ice phenology metrics (e.g., first and last days of full ice-cover, ice cover duration) derived from logistic regression models trained on observed ice cover and ERA5 30-day prior mean air temperatures (WY 1979-2023); - Median ice phenology for WY 2000-2023 from both observed and modeled datasets; - Analysis of change from both observed and modeled datasets, including trend estimates and decadal comparisons.