A Retrospective and Archival Study of Violent INCEL Men Using the TRAP-18 Lone Actor Terrorism Assessment

Objective: This study aimed to conduct a retrospective threat assessment on self-identified involuntarily celibate (INCEL) men who carried out violent attacks to increase our ability to identify, assess, mitigate, and manage potential INCEL violence.
Methods: This study applied the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol-18 (TRAP-18) threat assessment framework to eight cases of violent INCEL attackers: (1) Elliot Rodger; (2) Alek Minassian; (3) Chris Harper-Mercer; (4) Scott Paul Beierle; (5) Jake Davison; (6) Ben Moynihan; (7) Armando Hernandez; and (8) George Alfred Sodini. Publicly available information (e.g., manifestos, news articles, media interviews, etc.) were collected and analyzed to assess each individual case.
Results: Results indicated that the eight INCEL men studied met the majority of the proximal and distal criteria of the TRAP-18. All eight men displayed Pathway, Fixation, and Leakage proximal warning behaviours and revealed distal patterns of concern, including Personal Grievance and Moral Outrage, Framed by an Ideology, Dependence on a virtual community, Changes in thinking and emotion, Failure of Sexual Intimate Pair-Bonding, and some form of Mental illness while none had issues with the Failure to Affiliate.
Conclusion: The findings suggest that those affiliated with an INCEL ideology may share broad behavioural and cognitive patterns of radicalized terrorists, providing practical implications for law enforcement and mental health professionals.