Equation Balance and Dynamic Political Modeling

The papers in this symposium agree on several points. In this paper we sort through some remaining areas of disagreement and discuss some of the practical issues of time series modeling we think deserve further explanation. In particular, we have five points: (1) clarifying our stance on the GECM in light of the comments in this issue; (2) clarifying equation balance and discussing how bounded series affects our thinking about stationarity, balance, and modeling choices; (3) answering lingering questions about our Monte Carlo simulations and exploring potential problems in the inferences drawn from long-run multipliers; (4) reviewing and defending fractional integration methods in light of the questions raised in this symposium and elsewhere, and (5) providing a short practical guide to estimating a multivariate ARFIMA model with or without an error correction term.