Analog ensemble data assimilation in a quasigeostrophic coupled model Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

The ensemble forecast dominates the computational cost of many data assimilation methods, especially for high‐resolution and coupled models. In situations where the cost is prohibitive, one can either use a lower‐cost model or a lower‐cost data assimilation method, or both. Ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) is a classical example of a lower‐cost ensemble data assimilation method that replaces the ensemble forecast with a single forecast and then constructs an ensemble about this single forecast by adding perturbations drawn from climatology. This research develops lower‐cost ensemble data assimilation methods that add perturbations to a single forecast, where the perturbations are obtained from analogs of the single model forecast. These analogs can either be found from a catalog of model states, constructed using linear combinations of model states from a catalog, or constructed using generative machine‐learning methods. Four analog ensemble data assimilation methods, including two new ones, are compared with EnOI in the context of a coupled model of intermediate complexity: Q‐GCM. Depending on the method and on the physical variable, analog methods can be up to 40% more accurate than EnOI.