AUC statistics as calculated from simulated time series. Each statistical metric was calculated within sliding windows, throughout the pre-critical interval. We considered five-, fifteen-, and thirty-day sliding windows. Given that the temperature of the system increased to 12°C on day sixty, we also considered three pre-critical intervals: Days 1 to 60, Days 20 to 60, and Days 30 to 60. To evaluate trends in these metrics, we calculated Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient during the pre-critical interval, and compared control (constant temperature, non-epidemic) and warming (warming treatment, epidemic emergence) coefficients across simulations and experimental populations by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) statistic. Values less than 0.5 suggest that a decrease in the statistical metric indicates emergence, while values greater than 0.5 suggest that an increase in the statistical metric indicates emergence, with more extreme values indicating stronger tre

AUC statistics as calculated from simulated time series. Each statistical metric was calculated within sliding windows, throughout the pre-critical interval. We considered five-, fifteen-, and thirty-day sliding windows. Given that the temperature of the system increased to 12°C on day sixty, we also considered three pre-critical intervals: Days 1 to 60, Days 20 to 60, and Days 30 to 60. To evaluate trends in these metrics, we calculated Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient during the pre-critical interval, and compared control (constant temperature, non-epidemic) and warming (warming treatment, epidemic emergence) coefficients across simulations and experimental populations by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) statistic. Values less than 0.5 suggest that a decrease in the statistical metric indicates emergence, while values greater than 0.5 suggest that an increase in the statistical metric indicates emergence, with more extreme values indicating stronger tre