Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Malnutrition in Patients with Oral Mucositis during Radiochemotherapy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objective To construct a predictive model of malnutrition in patients with oral mucositis during chemoradiation and chemotherapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma and verify the predictive effect of this model. Methods 210 patients who were hospitalized in the otolaryngology department of a tertiary hospital from January 2020 to January 2025 were selected as modeling objects, and were divided into 86 cases in the normal nutrition group and 124 cases in the malnutrition group. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct a risk prediction model, and Hosmer-Lemeshow and subject operational feature curves evaluated the fitting and predictive ability advantages of the model, and 90 patients were included for model verification. Results The incidence of malnutrition in patients with oral mucositis during chemoradiation and chemotherapy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 40.95%. Factors affecting malnutrition were body mass index (OR = 0.751), smoking history (OR = 3.870), chemotherapy during radiotherapy (OR = 0.136), reduced leukocyte count (OR = 7.433), oral hygiene status (OR = 0.075), radioactive oral mucositis (OR = 0.014), and combined diabetes (OR = 0.104). Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.530, the area under the subject's operating characteristic curve was 0.820, the Youden index was 0.52, the sensitivity was 0.802, and the specificity was 0.718. Conclusion The risk prediction model constructed in this study has good effect and can effectively predict the incidence of malnutrition in patients with oral mucositis during chemoradiotherapy and provide reference for clinical staff to formulate and implement nutritional interventions.