THE CHINA-KYRGYZSTAN-UZBEKISTAN RAILWAY AND TRADE DIVERSIFICATION IN CENTRAL ASIA: EXPECTED ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS UNDER THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

This article examines how the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway may contribute to trade diversification and logistics competitiveness in Central Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In this article, trade diversification means the reduction of dependence on a narrow set of routes, partners and products through the creation of alternative transport corridors, wider market access and stronger export-import opportunities. Because the CKU railway is still under construction, the article does not claim measured post-completion effects. Instead, it provides an ex ante qualitative policy analysis supported by descriptive indicators from official, international and academic sources. The analysis shows that the CKU railway can strengthen Central Asia by adding a southern east-west rail option between western China and Uzbekistan through Kyrgyz territory, increasing route redundancy, improving the strategic role of the Ferghana Valley and supporting onward access to the Middle Corridor, the Trans-Afghan route, South Asia and the Middle East. However, these benefits are conditional rather than automatic. The railway can generate broad economic value only if it is combined with customs simplification, dry ports, multimodal terminals, harmonised technical standards, transparent financing, private-sector logistics services and policies that convert transit flows into local production and employment. The article concludes that the CKU railway should be understood as a potential economic corridor, not only as a transport line. Its long-term contribution to trade diversification will depend on the quality of corridor governance and complementary reforms.