Inflation Pass-Through under Dollar Pegs: Evidence from Nineteen Administered-Price Reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council

This archive contains the data, code, and outputs required to fully replicate the empirical results in the paper "Inflation Pass-Through under Dollar Pegs: Evidence from Nineteen Administered-Price Reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council" by Saeed Mousa (IESEG School of Management). The paper studies inflation pass-through in dollar-pegged emerging markets using a clean institutional setting — nineteen administered-price reforms implemented across the six Gulf Cooperation Council economies between 2014 and 2022. The archive enables reproduction of all empirical results: harmonized cross-country consumer-price-index panel construction, primary-source-verified reform chronology, sectoral exposure measure construction (v1 and v2 refinement), Eisfeldt-Papanikolaou organization-capital intangibles measure, three pre-registered mechanism tests (intangibles moderation, market concentration moderation, announcement-window anticipation), and wild cluster bootstrap inference appropriate for the small G = 6 cluster count. Contents The archive is organized into seven top-level folders: 00a_title_page.docx — Title page with abstract, keywords, JEL codes, acknowledgements, declarations 00b_manuscript.docx — Final manuscript (10 sections, 7 figures, 4 tables, ~7,400 words) 01_online_appendix.docx — Online Appendix B (power simulation, gap-binned anticipation, pre-trend tests, sectoral robustness, Peters-Taylor robustness, v2 exposure robustness, per-event details, bootstrap diagnostics) 02_cover_letter.docx — Cover letter to the editor 03_README.md — Full pipeline documentation 04_code/ — Six Python scripts implementing the full empirical pipeline 05_data/ — Eight processed data files (CPI panel, chronology, exposure matrices, intangibles intensity, firm panel summary) 06_robustness_outputs/ — Output files from the additional analyses reported in the Online Appendix Data sources Consumer prices. Monthly Consumer Price Indices disaggregated to twelve COICOP-2 expenditure divisions, covering January 2008 (UAE) through March 2026, harmonized across all six GCC economies. Sources: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT, Saudi Arabia); Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC, UAE); Information & eGovernment Authority (iGA, Bahrain); National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI, Oman); National Planning Council (NPC, Qatar) via the IMF Consumer Price Index database; Central Statistical Bureau (CSB, Kuwait) via the IMF database. Cross-validation against nine Qatar NPC Monthly Statistics bulletins confirms IMF data fidelity (mean ratio 0.9996, standard deviation 0.015). Reform chronology. Hand-coded chronology of nineteen confirmed administered-price reforms (energy-subsidy reductions, value-added tax introductions, utility-tariff revisions, and regime changes to monthly fuel indexation), with both announcement and implementation dates verified against at least two independent primary sources for each event. Firm-financial data. Compustat Global accessed via Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS), comprising 1,152 firms and 17,347 firm-year observations across the six GCC exchanges. The raw firm-level data are not included in this archive due to WRDS license restrictions; the pull procedure is fully documented in the README and the processed sector-level aggregates are included. Methodology highlights Two-way fixed-effects regression with country-by-sector and calendar-month FEs Cluster-robust standard errors with G = 6 country clusters Wild cluster bootstrap (Cameron, Gelbach, and Miller, 2008; MacKinnon and Webb, 2018) with 1,999 Rademacher-weight replications for small-cluster-valid inference Eisfeldt and Papanikolaou (2013) organization-capital construction with standard parameters (depreciation 0.20, current-expense share 0.70) Bartik-weighted sectoral exposure with refinement for utility, package, and regime-change events Per-event anticipation decomposition and gap-binned anticipation specification Software requirements Python 3.12 or 3.14 pandas, numpy, scipy, matplotlib, openpyxl WRDS subscription (for the firm-financial data refresh step only) The full replication pipeline runs in approximately 15-20 minutes on a standard desktop computer. Headline results Across nineteen administered-price reforms, the implied VAT pass-through coefficient varies from 0.56 (Bahrain 2022) to 1.11 (Oman 2021), with Saudi Arabia 2020 doubling at 1.02 and UAE 2018 introduction at 0.96. Three pre-registered mechanism tests deliver two precisely estimated nulls (intangibles intensity and market concentration as moderators) and one positive finding (announcement-window anticipation effects, with the moderating coefficient statistically significant at conventional levels at short horizons under bootstrap inference, and per-event anticipation shares reaching 42% for events with multi-month announcement gaps). Pre-registration The three mechanism tests reported in Section 8 of the paper were pre-registered prior to bootstrap-corrected estimation. Pre-registration URL to be added. Citation If you use this archive in your own work, please cite: Mousa, S. (2026). "Inflation Pass-Through under Dollar Pegs: Evidence from Nineteen Administered-Price Reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council." Replication archive: Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20185997 License The Python code in this archive is released under the MIT License. The processed CPI data is sourced from national statistical agencies (which generally permit non-commercial research use) and the IMF Consumer Price Index database (which permits research use with citation). Compustat Global firm data is not included; reuse requires a Wharton Research Data Services subscription. Contact For questions about the replication, the data construction methodology, or the chronology source verification, contact Saeed Mousa at [e-mail]. Related JEL codes E31, E52, F31, F33, H25, O53. Keywords Inflation pass-through; Dollar peg; Administered prices; Value-added tax; Energy subsidy reform; Anticipation effects; Wild cluster bootstrap; Gulf Cooperation Council.