On the Internal Processes Modulating Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Turbulent Stresses and Submesoscale Dynamics

Forecasting rapid intensity changes in hurricane intensity continues to evade current weather forecasting models, largely due to the multiscale dynamics of hurricanes. Typically, dynamical processes with scales below that of the forecasting model are parameterized. Thus, a clear understanding of the physics of these processes (from submesoscale to turbulent scale) is paramount to hurricane intensity forecast improvement.

This dissertation presents some progress in the characterization of turbulent eddies, their influence on hurricane mean intensity and the kinematics of their evolution as they relate to extreme Reynolds stress occurrence in the hurricane boundary layer. In addition, a framework for the representation of multiscale sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, constrained by realistic satellite observations in rapidly intensifying storms, is presented. The results from this dissertation is expected to guide the improvement of turbulence parameterization schemes as well as the prediction of hurricane rapid intensification in current operational weather forecasting models.