Coupling deep learning and physically-based hydrological models for monthly streamflow predictions

Revision in journal Water Resources Research, Manuscript number: 2023WR035618R

Abstract: This study proposes a new hybrid model for monthly streamflow predictions by coupling a physically-based distributed hydrological model with a deep learning (DL) model. Specifically, a simplified hydrological model is first developed by optimally selecting grid cells from a distributed hydrological model according to their soil moisture characteristics. It is then driven by bias corrected general circulation model (GCM) predictions to generate soil moistures for the forecasting months. Finally, model-simulated soil moisture along with other predictors from multiple sources are used as inputs of the DL model to predict future monthly streamflows. The proposed hybrid model, using the simplified Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) as the hydrological model and the combination of Convolutional Neural Network and Gated Recurrent Unit (CNN-GRU) as the DL model, is applied to predict 1-, 3-, and 6-month ahead reservoir inflows for the Danjiangkou Reservoir in China. The results show that the hybrid model consistently performs better than VIC and CNN-GRU models with great improvement in Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) values for lead times up to 6 months. Additional tests indicate that hybrid models based on CNN-GRU outperform those based on LASSO, XGBoost, CNN, and GRU models. Moreover, compared with the distributed hydrological model, the hybrid model greatly reduces the computation burden of rolling prediction. It also saves decision-makers the time and effort of trying different combinations of predictors, which is indispensable when building DL models. Overall, the new hybrid model demonstrates great potential for monthly streamflow prediction where training data are limited.

Keywords: monthly streamflow prediction; deep learning; physically-based distributed hydrological model; VIC model; soil moisture; hybrid model