Prevalence of childfree adults before and after Dobbs v Jackson in Michigan (USA)

Childfree adults are the most common type of non-parent in the United States and are distinguished by their lack of desire to have children. Although there are many reasons one may choose not to have children, recent restrictions on reproductive health care may also contribute to this decision. For example, the United States Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson eliminated a long-standing constitutional protection for abortion access, which reduced patients medical autonomy and increased the risks of pregnancy and childbirth, and therefore may have led adults to decide not to have children. In this study, we use representative data on Michigan adults immediately before and after the Dobbs decision to examine changes in the prevalence of childfree adults in this population. We find that 21% of Michigan adults were childfree before the Dobbs decision, but this number rose to nearly 26% after the decision. Controlling for demographic characteristics, a Michigan adult was 32.8% more likely to be childfree after the Dobbs decision than before. We conclude that when access to safe, reproductive health care is uncertain or unavailable, non-parents may decide not to have children, leading to lower birth rates.

无子女成年人是美国最常见的非父母群体，他们以其对生育子女的缺失欲望而著称。尽管有许多原因可能导致个人选择不生育，但近期对生殖健康护理的限制也可能促成这一决定。例如，美国最高法院在Dobbs诉Jackson案中的裁决取消了长期存在的关于堕胎接入权的宪法保护，这降低了患者的医疗自主权，增加了妊娠和分娩的风险，因此可能导致成年人决定不生育。在本研究中，我们利用Dobbs裁决前后密歇根成年人的代表性数据，以考察该群体中无子女成年人比例的变化。我们发现，在Dobbs裁决之前，密歇根成年人中有21%是无子女的，但这一比例在裁决后上升至近26%。在控制人口统计学特征后，密歇根成年人在Dobbs裁决后成为无子女者的可能性比裁决前高出32.8%。我们得出结论，当安全、生殖健康护理的接入变得不确定或不可用时，非父母可能会决定不生育，从而导致生育率下降。