Pinus banksiana Regeneration Patterns in a Lacustrine Dune System Lacking Fire

<p>Successional patterns in lacustrine sand dunes along Lake Superior begin with grass-dominated plant communities leading to the establishment of <em>Pinus banksiana</em> as initial forests. Using maximum entropy models, we predicted <em>P. banksiana </em>seedling and sapling patterns within the Grand Sable Dunes, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, USA, based on slope, aspect, forest basal area, and vegetation types. There were variable probabilities of seedling and sapling occurrence, with higher likelihoods observed in coastal pine barrens vegetation types. <em>P. banksiana </em>regeneration is occurring in the Grand Sable Dunes in the absence of fire, with seedlings establishing and saplings being recruited in a variety of vegetation types. Understanding regeneration patterns in dune ecosystems is necessary to predict the future forest arrangement and colonization of <em>P. banksiana </em>into the dunes. These results contribute insights into the dynamics of plant communities in lacustrine dune systems and their implications for conservation and management strategies in protected areas like Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore.</p>