Lane-changing rates.

The short-distance continuous diversion area plays a crucial role within mountainous urban expressway systems, significantly enhancing the efficiency of specialized road sections through capacity analysis. This study develops a capacity calculation model tailored to the diversion area’s unique characteristics and principal capacity-influencing factors. Initially, the research focuses on a specific short-distance continuous diversion area of a mountainous urban expressway, employing video trajectory tracking technology to gather trajectory data. This data serves as the basis for analyzing road and traffic characteristics. Subsequently, the model computes the capacity influenced by eight variables, including diversion point spacing and deceleration lane length, using VISSIM simulation experiments. A gray correlation analysis identifies key factors, which guide the establishment of the model’s fundamental structure through two-factor surface fitting results. Mathematical statistical methods are then applied to resolve the model’s parameters, culminating in a robust capacity calculation model. The findings reveal that diversion point spacing, along with primary and secondary diversion ratios, significantly influence capacity. Notably, the capacity exhibits a marked quadratic polynomial relationship with the primary diversion ratio and diversion point spacing, and a linear relationship with the secondary diversion ratio. The model’s validity is confirmed through a case study at the diversion area north of Huacun Interchange in Chongqing Municipality, where the discrepancy between calculated and actual capacities is under 5%, underscoring the model’s high accuracy. These results offer valuable theoretical and methodological support for the planning, design, and traffic management of diversion areas.