Comparison of goodness-of fit indices for different models and different numbers of parameters inferred.

The indices are computed on Incidence, β and Reff trajectories: RMSE: root mean square error using the median; MAPE: maximum absolute percentage error using the median; MIQR: mean inter-quartile range. The parameter values used are in the captions of the figures. For comparison purposes we used a stochastic version of the SIRS model with sinusoidal β and for all figures the observation process is applied to the inferred incidence trajectory.