Investigating the sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration to recent snow cover changes in Alaska using a satellite-based permafrost carbon model

The contribution of soil heterotrophic respiration to the boreal-Arctic carbon (CO2) cycle and its potential feedback to climate change remain poorly quantified. We developed a remote sensing driven permafrost carbon model at intermediate scale (~1 km) to investigate how environmental factors affect the magnitude and seasonality of soil heterotrophic respiration in Alaska. The permafrost carbon model simulates snow and soil thermal dynamics, and accounts for vertical soil carbon transport and decomposition at depths up to 3 m below surface. Model outputs include soil temperature profiles and carbon fluxes at 1-km resolution spanning the recent satellite era (2001-2017) across Alaska. Comparisons with eddy covariance tower measurements show that the model captures the seasonality of carbon fluxes, with favorable accuracy in simulating net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) for both tundra (R > 0.8, RMSE = 0.34 g C m-2 d-1) and boreal forest (R > 0.73, RMSE = 0.51 g C m-2 d-1). Benchmark assessments using two regional in-situ datasets indicate that the model captures the complex influence of snow insulation on soil temperature, and the temperature sensitivity of cold-season soil heterotrophic respiration. Across Alaska, we find that seasonal 3snow cover imposes strong controls on the contribution from different soil depths to total soil heterotrophic respiration. Earlier snow melt in spring promotes deeper soil warming and enhances the contribution of deeper soils to total soil heterotrophic respiration during the later growing season, thereby reducing net ecosystem carbon uptake. Early cold-season soil heterotrophic respiration is closely linked to the number of snow-free days after the land surface freezes (R = -0.48, p < 0.1), i.e. the delay in snow onset relative to surface freeze onset. Recent trends toward earlier autumn snow onset in northern Alaska promote a longer zero-curtain period and enhanced cold-season respiration. In contrast, southwestern Alaska shows a strong reduction in the number of snow-free days after land surface freeze onset, leading to earlier soil freezing and a large reduction in cold-season soil heterotrophic respiration. Our results also show non-negligible influences of sub-grid variability of surface conditions on the model simulated CO2 seasonal cycle, especially during the early cold season at 10-km scale. Our results demonstrate the critical role of snow cover affecting the seasonality of soil temperature and respiration, and highlight the challenges of incorporating these complex processes into future projections of the boreal-Arctic carbon cycle.