Order from Tariff Chaos

The TTF quantifies the intensity of tariff threats since January 16, 2025, and ranges from 0 to 3. Minor tariffs affecting less than $10 billion in trade or simply limited to specific products receive a score of 1. Moderate tariffs affecting $10-100 billion in trade or a broader range of product categories are scored as 2, and major tariffs affecting over $100 billion in trade or entire sectors receive a score of 3. A Google Trends (GT) analysis is used to quantify the “environmental feedback” to Trump’s tariff moves. To gauge public perception, we compare two search terms “Trump tariff chaos” and “Trump tariff strategy” from mid-January to April 16, 2025