Agriculture-urban interfaces, social vulnerability, and climate change shape West Nile virus risk across the United States

Climate and land use change are reshaping the dynamics of vector-borne
diseases. West Nile virus (WNV), the most widespread zoonotic arbovirus in
the United States, illustrates the need to integrate climate, land use,
and social vulnerability across heterogenous landscapes when assessing
spatial risk. We present a nationwide, county-level assessment of WNV
risk, using complementary statistical and mechanistic models to (1)
identify socio-ecological predictors of current WNV incidence, and (2)
project species-specific, temperature-dependent transmission suitability
under mid- and late-century climate change scenarios. We find that land
use gradients, temperature-driven transmission, and both occupational and
residential exposure jointly shape WNV incidence, particularly in mixed
urban-agricultural landscapes. Future temperature and land use projections
suggest spatially variable shifts in environmental suitability, driven by
divergent physiological responses among Culex species vectors. Our results
highlight temperature and land use as robust, mechanistically grounded
predictors of WNV risk at the national scale, while underscoring the need
for refined, species-specific analyses at local levels. These insights can
inform more targeted surveillance, vector control, and climate adaptation
strategies. We also identify key knowledge gaps, particularly around host
and vector ecology, that must be addressed to improve public health
response in the face of ongoing environmental change.