Effect of climate change on truffle (Tuber species) distribution and host plant interactions in Thailand

Climate change is an important driver of shifts in species’ geographic distributions, including those of several truffle species. Understanding these shifts is essential for effective conservation and sustainable ecosystem management. This study aimed to identify suitable habitats for three Tuber species discovered in Thailand—Tuber lannaense, T. thailandicum, and T. magnatum—and project their future distributions under climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt modeling and presence-only occurrence data, we predicted current and future suitable habitats under two climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) for the year 2050. Annual precipitation (bio12) and mean diurnal range (bio02) were the most influential environmental variables for three Tuber species and their host plants. Currently, suitable habitats for Tuber species and their host trees (Betula alnoides and Carpinus londoniana) are concentrated in mountainous areas of northern and northeastern Thailand, covering approximately 6000 km2. By 2050, under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the shared suitable habitat between truffles and their host plants is projected to be completely lost (100%). Carpinus londoniana is expected to lose nearly 100% of its suitable habitat under SSP1-2.6 and retain only 37 km2 under SSP5-8.5, whereas B. alnoides shows potential for southward range expansion despite some habitat loss. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to preserve Thai Tuber species and their symbiotic hosts under changing climatic conditions.