Tree regeneration after unprecedented forest disturbances in Central Europe is robust but maladapted to future climate change

Overview This repository contains the core R scripts used for the analysis presented in the manuscript: Tree regeneration after unprecedented forest disturbances in Central Europe is robust but maladapted to future climate change, by M. Potterf et al., 2026, published in Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.70734 The scripts analyze post-disturbance tree regeneration patterns across 849 field plots in 10 Central European countries and assess their climatic suitability under future climate scenarios. All scripts are organized in a modular pipeline, from data exploration to statistical modeling and simulation outputs. 📁 Folder Structure public/├── code/ # Analysis scripts (00–05)├── data/ # Cleaned input data├── figs/ # Output figures├── model/ # iLand simulation outputs├── tables/ # Results for manuscript --- 📜 Script Descriptions ### `00_paths_functions.R`Sets ups the working directory. contains the paths to teh main files. Utility and helper functions used across other scripts (e.g., data wrangling, plotting themes, model setup). ➡️ Load this script at the beginning of all others. --- ### `01_analyse_structure.R`Analyzes **field-observed regeneration structure and composition**. **Outputs:**- Stem density and vertical layer composition - Species richness and frequency across plots - Summary tables and plots supporting early recovery results (Figure 1, Table S1–S2) --- ### `02_model_drivers.R`Fits **Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)** to identify climatic, soil, and disturbance predictors of stem density. **Core analyses:**- Tweedie-distributed GAMs (with spatial smooth) - Model selection via univariate AIC and drop-one tests - Outputs support Figures 2 and S2–S4, Table S3–S5 --- ### `03_compare_adv_del_conditions_wilcox.R`Compares **site conditions** between delayed vs. advanced regeneration using non-parametric Wilcoxon tests. **Implements:**- Classification into regeneration types - Statistical testing and visualization (Figure 3, Table S4) --- ### `04_forest_simulation.R`Processes **iLand simulation outputs** for 30-year regeneration projections. **Includes:**- Infilling dynamics - Seed input sensitivity (Figure S5) --- ### `05_climate_suitability.R`Evaluates **long-term climatic suitability** of regenerating species using species distribution models (SDMs). **Calculates:**- Species-/plot-level climatic suitability under RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5 - Supports Figure 4, Table 1, Table S6 ---