Data from: Ability of seedlings to survive heat and drought portends future demographic challenges for five southwestern US conifers

Climate change and disturbance are altering forests and the rates and
locations of tree regeneration. We examined seedling survival of five
southwestern United States (US) conifer species found in warmer and drier
woodlands (Pinus edulis, P. ponderosa) and cooler and wetter
subalpine forests (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Abies concolor, and Picea
engelmanii) under hot and dry conditions in incubators. We
constructed models that explained 53% to 76% of the species-specific
survival variability, then applied these to recent climate (1980-2019) and
projected climate (1980-2099) for the southwestern US. We found that lower
elevations within species’ range would have low survival under projected
climate and that range contraction would be greatest for species that
currently occupy warm-dry conditions. These results demonstrate
that empirically derived physiological limitations can be used to identify
where species composition or vegetation type change are likely to occur in
the southwest US.