Climate change impacts pair-bond dynamics in a long-lived monogamous species

Manuscript title: Climate change impacts pair-bond dynamics in a long-lived monogamous species

Author(s):Ruijiao SunWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyUniversity of California, Santa Barbara, [e-mail]@icloud.com

Christophe BarbraudCentre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-La Rochelle University UMR7372, 79360 Villiers en Bois, [e-mail] 

Stéphanie JenouvrierBiology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, [e-mail]

Karine DelordCentre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS-La Rochelle University UMR7372, 79360 Villiers en Bois, France

Kristen KrumhardtClimate and Global Dynamics, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA

Rémi FayLaboratoire de Biom´etrie et Biologie Évolutive, UMR 5558, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France

Francesco VenturaBiology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, [e-mail]

Bilgecan ŞenCenter for Environmental Science,University of Maryland,Cambridge, MD 21613,USA

Abstract:Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly. Divorce was adaptive, occurring more frequently after breeding failure and leading to improved breeding success. Divorce probabilities also increased under severe climatic conditions, regardless of prior breeding success, supporting the "Habitat-mediated” mechanisms. Generally, pair-bond disruptions reduced subsequent vital rates and lifetime outcomes. Climate forecasts from an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projected increased male widowhood rates due to decreased sea ice negatively affecting female survival, despite considerable uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of environmentally induced changes in demographic and pair-bond disruption rates as crucial factors shaping demographic responses to climate change. 

Funding information: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (OPP 1840058) to SJ and RS. Field data has been collected since 1963 on Ile des Pétrels as part of ORNITHOECO  Project 109 "Seabirds and marine mammals as sentinels of global changes in the Southern Ocean”, funded by the French Polar Institute Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV; PI C. Barbraud). Institut Polaire Françis, Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV), Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises, and Zone Atelier Antarctique et Terres Australes (LTSER France, CNRS-INEE) provided logistical and financial support. This study is part of the long-term Studies in Ecology and Evolution (SEE-Life) program of the CNRS and a contribution to Project SENSEI (Sentinels of the sea ice) funded by Fondation BNP Paribas.

Data location:Ile des Pétrels, Pointe Géologie Archipelago (66°40'S, 140°01'E), Terre Adélie, Antarctica

File folder list:ForecastJAGS_modelsLHO

Software:Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture analyses were conducted using JAGS through R. Life history analyses and pair-bond disruption forecasts were performed using MATLAB. All figures were produced in MATLAB.

Description:These files contain all the data, code, and model outputs needed to reproduce the results and figures in our study. The data comes from a long-term monitoring project of snow petrels breeds at Ile des Pétrels, Pointe Géologie Archipelago (66°40'S, 140°01'E), Terre Adélie, Antarctica. Since 1963, an annual long-term monitoring study has been conducted. Adults and chicks were leg-banded with stainless-steel bands, with adult sex determined by vocalization and relative size. Nest surveys during incubation and fledging periods determined breeding success and pair identities.

There are three main subfolders included: (1) JAGS_models: JAGS code and R code to perform our Multi-state capture-mark-recapture models and corresponding model output; (2) LHO: Code for life-history outcome analysis; (3) Forecast: Climate projection data and code for pair-bond disruption forecast.Each subfolder includes a README.txt file that describes its contents.