Hepatic Tumor Stiffness Measured by Shear Wave Elastography is Prognostic for HCC Progression Following Treatment with Anti-PD-1 Antibodies plus Lenvatinib: A retrospective analysis of two independent cohorts

Background The clinical significance of liver stiffness (LS) measured by shear wave elastography (SWE) in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors remains unknown. This study aimed to explore the prognostic value of baseline LS by SWE prior to PD-1 inhibitor treatment in combination with lenvatinib.Methods We retrospectively evaluated patients (n=133) with HCC who received anti-PD-1 antibodies plus lenvatinib at two high-volume medical centres, between January 2020 and June 2021. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to develop a novel nomogram. RNA sequencing and immunohistochemical staining were used to assess the heterogeneity of biological and immune characteristics associated with tumor stiffness.Results The objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) of the whole population were 23.4% and 72.2%, respectively. A LS value of the baseline tumorous foci of 19.53 kPa had the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity, making it the optimal cut-off value for predicting PD-1 inhibitor efficacy. The nomogram comprised baseline tumor LS and albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI), which provided favorable calibration and discrimination in the training dataset with an AUC of 0.840 (95%CI: 0.750-0.931) and a C-index of 0.828. Further, it showed acceptable discrimination in the validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.827 (95%CI: 0.673-0.980) and C-index of 0.803. The differentially expressed genes enriched in high stiffness tumors were predominantly associated with metabolic pathways, while those enriched in low stiffness tumors were related to DNA damage repair. Furthermore, patients with high stiffness tumors had a relatively lower infiltration of immune cells and histone deacetylase pathway inhibitors were identified as candidate drugs to promote the efficacy of immunotherapy.